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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.