Daily Murders in the nation Drop 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average number of daily murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to signal improved national stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it may mask days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.